Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Wyoming

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Wyoming in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Wyoming in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 85.1% for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.834) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.017).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6043 7.87%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5348 -1.65%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1497 -2.31%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0267 -0.21%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0267 -1.60%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1230 1.00%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0214 -0.50%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0535 0.46%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0053 -0.07%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0802 0.40%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0642 -0.76%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4813 -6.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.3102 -3.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0214 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0802 -0.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0588 1.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3636 7.14%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.2567 3.25%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0428 -0.78%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0749 2.17%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0802 -0.76%
Low Income 0.0081 0.2513 0.20%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0481 -0.26%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1016 1.57%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0053 -0.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6310 11.92%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0428 0.07%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0856 -0.13%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0053 0.07%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.4599 2.85%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0107 0.05%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9893 2.18%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 254.0000 -4.65%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0864 18.37%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0791 6.82%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0363 0.69%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0145 -7.75%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0410 -19.97%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.0704 26.45%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2330 19.19%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1394 -12.44%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0275 12.47%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0847 18.75%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0379 2.59%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,224 for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39683) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-32459).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6062 -$1,722
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5188 -$447
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1500 -$472
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0250 -$132
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0250 -$151
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1188 $28
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0250 -$110
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0562 -$131
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0062 -$40
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0688 -$185
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0750 $524
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4812 $174
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.3062 $253
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0188 -$25
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0938 $529
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0500 $203
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0000 $0
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3812 $368
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.2812 $1,019
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0375 -$37
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0688 -$93
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0875 $13
Low Income -332.4067 0.2562 -$85
Homeless -446.4262 0.0562 -$25
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1062 $214
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0062 -$12
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6688 $540
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 3893.9900 $1,422
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0375 $75
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1000 $69
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0062 -$16
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.4438 $405
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0062 $5
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9938 -$204
Median Days in Program 3.2489 259.0000 $841
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0864 $2,079
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0791 $2,558
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0363 $1,425
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0145 -$700
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0410 $167
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.0704 $6,811
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2330 $13,086
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1394 $8,041
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0275 $297
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0847 $3,358
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0379 -$232

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 79.3% for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.267) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.474).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6087 -22.00%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6159 32.14%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.0870 -0.61%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0507 -5.06%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0072 2.12%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1304 -18.86%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0217 4.63%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0290 -1.64%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0362 3.09%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0145 2.86%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3261 -3.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.3551 -6.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0652 0.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.1594 -13.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0362 -0.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0072 1.33%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.5000 18.24%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.4203 -12.80%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0870 -2.27%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0797 2.00%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0072 0.64%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2101 4.49%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1449 11.32%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6449 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1522 0.99%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0145 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.3913 -5.07%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0072 0.36%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0652 -1.86%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9928 7.27%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 316.0000 11.21%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 305.0000 -7.44%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1087 -0.09%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0864 86.52%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0791 70.64%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0363 44.02%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0145 -63.71%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0410 130.17%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.0704 53.33%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2330 231.33%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1394 35.99%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0275 90.55%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0847 -1.21%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0379 -51.43%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 76.2% for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.587) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.349).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4595 2.74%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4054 0.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3243 -0.55%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1351 1.43%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0811 -1.54%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0811 0.96%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0270 -0.79%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0811 -0.80%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.5135 -1.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2703 -5.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0541 -0.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1081 -0.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0541 -0.65%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1622 1.72%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0811 -0.21%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0541 -0.28%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0811 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0270 0.12%
Low Income -0.0518 0.0541 -0.28%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8649 9.78%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.4054 0.84%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.1081 0.80%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1622 0.81%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0270 -1.33%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 175.0000 0.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0864 -17.47%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0791 -3.69%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0363 -6.20%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0145 -14.39%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0410 -25.75%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.0704 -25.36%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2330 -46.47%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1394 -39.77%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0275 8.38%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0847 10.41%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0379 1.56%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,468 for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 27280) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-18813).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4857 -$924
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4286 $478
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3143 -$40
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1429 -$304
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0571 -$142
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0857 -$74
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0286 -$134
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0000 $0
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0857 -$302
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.5429 -$760
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2571 -$489
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0286 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1143 $174
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0571 $123
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1714 $292
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0857 $325
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0571 $16
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0857 $124
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0000 $0
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0286 -$22
Low Income -538.7097 0.0571 -$31
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8571 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7926.9150 $727
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.4000 $27
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1143 -$285
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1714 $30
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0286 $190
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 169.5000 $377
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0864 -$2,353
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0791 $2,900
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0363 $1,713
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0145 -$3,783
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0410 $3,525
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.0704 $6,689
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2330 $11,923
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1394 $6,132
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0275 -$125
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0847 $1,886
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0379 -$220

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 74.4% for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.539) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-2.795).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.3929 -5.93%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5000 -3.27%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3214 7.76%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1429 6.54%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0000 0.00%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1429 -9.49%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0357 -1.18%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0357 9.45%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0357 0.18%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3571 -6.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2143 -5.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0357 -0.93%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.3571 9.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.2143 -0.46%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1071 -2.83%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0714 -10.34%
Veteran -0.9235 0.1071 -9.89%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1071 3.96%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9286 2.66%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1429 5.54%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0357 1.27%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.3929 -2.42%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 1.0000 -9.63%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 191.0000 -6.14%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 108.0000 -2.95%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1786 2.89%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0864 -69.80%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0791 35.20%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0363 35.79%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0145 -85.34%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0410 50.05%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.0704 113.02%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2330 166.90%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1394 21.09%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0275 179.94%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0847 -24.11%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0379 -41.07%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 66.6% for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.263) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.929).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5108 3.04%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0753 0.92%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.4032 -5.79%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.2634 -5.41%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1559 0.16%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.1774 -1.11%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0108 0.21%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0645 -0.27%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0591 -1.98%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0591 0.89%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.1720 1.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0161 -0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2204 6.06%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2473 0.88%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.2204 -1.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0000 0.00%
Low Income 0.0375 0.3710 1.39%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1183 0.75%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0054 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2151 -1.54%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.1398 0.49%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0108 -0.09%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0215 -0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.7473 3.30%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0054 0.04%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0054 -0.02%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0108 0.04%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2796 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.8925 1.32%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 232.0000 -0.93%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0864 -58.63%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0791 -14.87%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0363 -4.94%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0145 -10.61%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0410 -8.77%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.0704 -18.00%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2330 0.58%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1394 -5.50%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0275 -29.74%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0847 27.94%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0379 -5.64%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,099 for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 13403) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10304).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5000 -$938.75
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0574 -$5.30
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.3033 -$397.01
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3115 -$332.18
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1967 $127.77
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1967 $376.42
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0082 $5.33
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0656 -$58.12
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0574 -$10.58
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0492 $45.89
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.2131 $294.94
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0246 -$20.37
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2541 $155.96
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1803 $98.49
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1967 -$97.41
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0000 $0.00
Low Income -305.7985 0.3279 -$100.26
Homeless 983.9044 0.0000 $0.00
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0902 -$115.83
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2213 $189.11
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.1066 -$30.21
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0164 -$10.33
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0328 -$15.17
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.7295 $117.58
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0082 -$13.60
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0000 $0.00
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0082 $0.85
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2459 -$1.07
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.9098 -$25.36
Median Days in Program 0.5942 232.0000 $137.85
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0864 -$274.02
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0791 $869.85
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0363 $782.87
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0145 -$806.27
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0410 $1,838.52
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.0704 $1,000.97
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2330 $4,746.52
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1394 $988.40
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0275 $1,571.06
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0847 $3,689.42
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0379 -$382.86

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.6% for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.704) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.028).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5401 -14.90%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0214 -1.73%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.5241 -47.30%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2727 -19.08%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.0749 -12.28%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1765 -0.30%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0535 0.02%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0642 -1.01%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0374 7.38%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.0802 -2.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0053 0.56%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1818 0.40%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.3690 7.29%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0053 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.8556 -6.10%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0214 1.18%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0053 -0.47%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.7914 -3.98%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 132.0000 -4.31%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0802 -2.76%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0864 65.89%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0791 75.75%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0363 21.17%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0145 -62.24%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0410 -58.45%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.0704 101.91%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2330 164.57%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1394 87.84%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0275 140.06%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0847 -62.16%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0379 -4.43%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 65.1% for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.338) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.687).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4370 3.50%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4480 4.86%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1925 -1.66%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0968 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0933 -0.59%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1011 2.35%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0057 -0.13%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0191 -0.31%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0040 0.38%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.2027 -6.21%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0258 0.64%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4819 -0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1959 0.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0498 -0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0677 2.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0515 -3.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0152 -0.80%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.2423 2.10%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0562 -0.51%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0636 -2.26%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0783 1.70%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0286 0.58%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1028 0.95%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0146 -0.10%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0261 0.48%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0041 -0.09%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6392 20.29%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0256 -0.40%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.1634 -0.63%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0139 -0.12%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0148 -0.15%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0001 -0.07%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0052 0.57%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0121 -0.69%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 57.0000 -1.57%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0864 14.56%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0791 12.19%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0363 3.68%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0145 -0.67%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0410 12.17%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.0704 6.64%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2330 29.90%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1394 8.25%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0275 10.75%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0847 14.40%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0379 1.31%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,395 for Wyoming for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 38738) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-33344).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4285 -$1,189
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4608 $703
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1955 $44
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0918 $158
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0785 $313
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1087 $164
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0057 -$7
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0197 -$58
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0050 -$12
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.1377 -$767
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0277 $296
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4839 -$854
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2064 -$449
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0520 -$113
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0749 $157
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0583 $4
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0159 -$80
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.3053 $139
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0617 -$71
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0526 -$268
Veteran -913.8967 0.0777 -$71
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0259 $17
Low Income 634.4633 0.0826 $52
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0100 -$35
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0277 $53
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0028 -$30
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7552 -$166
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5677.3450 $1,483
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0183 $14
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.1777 $81
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0134 $3
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0167 -$11
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0001 -$2
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0043 $46
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0104 $17
Median Days in Program 0.8717 56.0000 $49
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0864 $3,201
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0791 $3,383
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0363 $1,732
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0145 $164
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0410 $2,569
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.0704 $4,779
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2330 $11,997
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1394 $5,999
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0275 $1,147
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0847 $4,348
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0379 -$193

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x